The unsettled weather pattern we have seen this week continues. A storm system is moving through the eastern part of the country right now, and the associated warm front was responsible for yesterday's and last night's rain and thunderstorms. A weak cold front trailing the system will move through later today and this evening. If thunderstorms develop as the front passes, they could produce damaging wind and hail. The risk is enough that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of the state in a risk level 1 of 5 on their Severe Weather Outlook.
SPC's Severe Weather Outlook for this afternoon and tonight with South Carolina in focus.
After these cold front moves through, Saturday will be warm with some sunshine, and temperatures across most of the state will reach the low to mid-80s. However, another storm is on the way. You can see it on satellite imagery, moving into the southern Plains states today.
A loop of True Color visible satellite imagery showing two storm systems affecting the southern states around midday today. Source: University of Wisconsin Real Earth
This storm is getting ready to drop a severe weather hammer on Texas today. It will cause more severe storms over parts of the Southeast later this weekend as it crosses the region, including portions of South Carolina. The approaching storm will cause another warm front to move through on Saturday evening with rain and thunderstorms, like last night. There could be a few severe storms in the Lowcountry, with this activity causing locally damaging wind and an isolated tornado or two.
Then after midnight Saturday night, a cold front will move in as the storm center passes nearby to the north. This cold front has the potential to be more serious, as it will meet a warm, muggy air mass that will fuel thunderstorms, and favorable wind shear results in a risk for isolated tornadoes over much of the state. The timing is good in that it's the least unstable time of day but bad in that it looks like there will be a tornado risk when we're all trying to sleep.
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SPC's Severe Weather Outlook for Saturday
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SPC's Severe Weather Outlook for Sunday
The storms will cause soaking downpours, too—rainfall totals through Sunday evening range from one to two inches, locally more in the Lowcountry. We'll have to monitor the potential for flash flooding both in the Lowcountry and the parts of the Upstate that saw 3-6 inches of rain over the last 24 hours.
It wouldn't hurt to go ahead and be sure you're ready in case severe storms and tornadoes develop Saturday night. Be sure your phone is properly configured to warn you of severe weather, for example. Ready.gov has more severe weather prep tips.
Sunday looks windy and cooler, with clouds and sunny breaks. There might be enough moisture left over for stray showers to pop up over the state's northern half, but it shouldn't be a washout. Wind gusts to 30 mph will annoy motorists and make the 'lake life' a no-go.
The gusty winds continue into Monday and will usher in a reinforcing shot of unseasonably cool air into the state, so we'll have another stretch of chilly mornings during the first part of next week. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon should be pleasant, though.
Another cold front could arrive as early as Thursday, but there is not good agreement on timing among computer models. When it does reach us, it will reinforce the cooler-than-average weather pattern we're in. It looks as like the below-average temperatures will continue well into May. However, cooler-than-usual weather becomes a good thing once we get to May!
