A cold front leading a blast of extreme cold from Santa’s neighborhood is rapidly approaching. An analysis of recent surface pressure puts the front over the middle Mississippi Valley region as of midafternoon. The warm front that brought the state rain and thunderstorms this morning is moving away to the northeast, but cold air damming is keeping most of South Carolina chilly.
The front is marching eastward at 25 mph or so, which is a pace that will bring it into South Carolina late tonight. Short-range, high-resolution computer models generally agree on the front reaching Oconee County at around 3:00-4:00 a.m. and reaching our coast at 8:00-9:00 a.m. tomorrow morning.
When the front arrives, it will hit you like a right cross from Mike Tyson in his prime. Winds will suddenly rise, and temperatures will suddenly fall. Look for a 10-15 degree drop in an hour or less accompanied by winds gusting to the 40-50 mph range. The strongest wind gusts will likely occur over the northern part of the state, roughly along and north of I-20, where there will be the best chance for a gust to 50 mph. However, moisture will be lacking, and only brief and spotty showers will occur along the front.
Mariners beware: the front will bring a gale to our coastal waters tomorrow with gusts to 40 knots or so possible and seas building to 4-8 feet.
The strongest winds will occur during the first 1-2 hours after the front moves through, but cold west-to-northwest winds will continue to gust to around 35 mph for the rest of the day. As the temperature plummets, so will the wind chill.
Coastal residents, remember that the tolerable low 50s at daybreak will be the warmest it gets all day. By mid-afternoon, it will be near freezing. Dress for the cold if you go out early, even though it won’t be at the start of the day.
Also, tomorrow looks to be a difficult travel day. You’ll have to use caution driving because of the wind. It would be best to delay your departure until after those strongest winds end, which for our coastal areas will be in the late morning hours. There will also be flight delays because of our winds and bad weather at airports in the Northeast, Midwest, and Northwest.
It will remain breezy Friday night and Saturday. By Saturday morning, statewide temperatures will be the coldest since the first week of 2018. Lows that morning will range from the single digits and low teens in the Upstate to low 20s along our coast. Yes, even the immediate coast will have to contend with this frigid air since the gusty west-to-northwest winds will push the cold straight to the beaches and even offshore. Most of the state will remain below freezing Saturday afternoon, with ineffective sunshine. It will feel no better than the high teens due to the wind.
A clear sky and diminishing wind lead to a bitterly cold Saturday night and Christmas morning. It won’t be as harsh, but temperatures will be nearly as cold Sunday morning as Saturday morning. The same will apply to the afternoon – very cold, but not as bad as Christmas Eve.
Temperatures will gradually moderate next week. It looks to be dry until next Friday since models have found agreement that a storm near the East Coast at midweek will stay well offshore from South Carolina.
This serves as this week’s regular alert, usually sent out on Fridays. Next week’s routine alert, which should be the next one necessary, will also come on Thursday since I plan to be away from my desk next Friday. As always, thanks for subscribing and reading!
Merry Christmas! Happy Hanukkah to those celebrating! Keep warm!
